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Training “Petroleum Economics and Portfolio Risk Analysis”, 17 – 20 December 2013, Sheraton Hotel Kuta – BALI
December 17, 2013 @ 8:00 am - December 23, 2017 @ 5:00 pm
Overview
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- This new title of Petroleum Economics course is to accommodate topic of Portfolio Risk Analysis in more detail.
- This intensive course will provide participants with the tools and techniques to avoid some common errors in evaluation and execute investment decision with better assessment using Market Risk & Portfolio Analysis.
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Key Highlights
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- Basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical implementation of these techniques to upstream project assessment in PSC Regime
- Identifying and quantifying risk using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
- Assessing risk market information in managing upstream project.
- Making investment decisions in exploration and development project, acquisition project or bidding evaluation on block tender
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Contents
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| Topic |
Description |
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Basic Economic Evaluation
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1. Overview of project economics in PSC regime
2. Conventional Valuation Techniques:
- Undiscounted Analysis (IRR, Payback)
- Discounted Analysis (NPV, Profit to Investment)
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Risk Analysis
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3. Static Risk Analysis
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Scenario Analysis (high, base, and low case)
4. Probabilistic Risk Analysis
- MonteCarlo Simulation (Probability distributions)
5. Decision Tree
- Expected Monetary Value
- Value of Information
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Risk Management
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6. Contingence Decision Analysis using Real Options
- Fuzzy Pay Off Method
- Paddock Siegel and Smith model
7. Portfolio Management
- Selection Technique
- Diversification and Optimization
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The Use of Market Information
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8. Some common errors in conventional technique
9. Forward price market
10. Conventional DCF vs Market based NPV (MBV)
11. Static vs Dynamic Cash Flow using forward pricing |
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Case Study
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- Harvard Business Case Study : Penzoil vs Texaco
- Acquisition on PSC Block
- Evaluation of bidding proposal on Block Tender
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Complement
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- Extensive set of course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical valuation examples.
- Excel sspreadsheets Model for petroleum projects evaluation
- Risk Simulator software (Trial Version) for Monte Carlo Simulation
- Free Book “A New Era of Project Economics and Investment Decision Techniques”
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Further Information
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Xperiential and Professional Training (XP training)Menara Kartika Chandra Lt.2 R206 Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav 18-20 JakartaPh. 021-5251351, Fax. 021-5256479.E-mail: info@xp-training.info |
