Explore Real Options

Training “Petroleum Economics and Portfolio Risk Analysis”, 17 – 20 December 2013, Sheraton Hotel Kuta – BALI
2013-12-17 08:00 - 2017-12-23 17:00 (UTC+0)
Overview

This new title of Petroleum Economics course is to accommodate topic of Portfolio Risk Analysis in more detail.
This intensive course will provide participants with the tools and techniques to avoid some common errors in evaluation and execute investment decision with better assessment using Market Risk & Portfolio Analysis.

Key Highlights

Basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical implementation of these techniques to upstream project assessment in PSC Regime
Identifying and quantifying risk using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
Assessing risk market information in managing upstream project.
Making investment decisions in exploration and development project, acquisition project or bidding evaluation on block tender

Contents

Topic
Description

Basic Economic Evaluation

1. Overview of project economics in PSC regime
2. Conventional Valuation Techniques:

Undiscounted Analysis (IRR, Payback)
Discounted Analysis (NPV, Profit to Investment)

Risk Analysis

3. Static Risk Analysis

Sensitivity Analysis
Scenario Analysis (high, base, and low case)

4. Probabilistic Risk Analysis

MonteCarlo Simulation (Probability distributions)

5. Decision Tree

Expected Monetary Value
Value of Information

Risk Management

6. Contingence Decision Analysis using Real Options

Fuzzy Pay Off Method
Paddock Siegel and Smith model

7. Portfolio Management

Selection Technique
Diversification and Optimization

The Use of Market Information

8. Some common errors in conventional technique
9. Forward price market
10. Conventional DCF vs Market based NPV (MBV)
11. Static vs Dynamic Cash Flow using forward pricing

Case Study

Harvard Business Case Study : Penzoil vs Texaco
Acquisition on PSC Block
Evaluation of bidding proposal on Block Tender

Complement

Extensive set of course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical valuation examples.
Excel sspreadsheets Model for petroleum projects evaluation
Risk Simulator software (Trial Version) for Monte Carlo Simulation
Free Book “A New Era of Project Economics and Investment Decision Techniques”

Further Information

Xperiential and Professional Training (XP training)Menara Kartika Chandra Lt.2 R206 Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav 18-20 JakartaPh. 021-5251351, Fax. 021-5256479.E-mail: info@xp-training.info
