the summary of coal market info as of 1 Apr 2015 is as follows:
- Newcastle pricing fell further this week as first-quarter supply tightness continued to give way to improved second-quarter availability. But volatility remained, along with a sizeable premium for prompt delivery. Cargoes for April were available in a comparatively wide range of $61.00-$63.50/t FOB, basis 6,000 kc NAR, but May/June business was bookable at $57.00-$59.00/t FOB, same basis. High-ash Australian cargoes dipped more precipitously, with buyers rejecting bids above $48.50/t FOB, basis 5,500 kc NAR, and moving to renegotiate down earlier business. Indonesian single-mine sub-bituminous was at $49.50/t FOB, basis 4,900 kc NAR, with blends significantly lower
- The 2014 decline in coal exports was primarily a result of slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries compared with 2013. EIA projects coal exports will fall from 97 MMst in 2014 to an annual average of 81 MMst in 2015 and 2016. Global market conditions for coal are not expected to change significantly through 2016.
Based on the graph, we estimate Indonesian Coal Price reference (HBA /Harga Batubara Acuan) will be $71.37/bbl in April 2015 and will average $ 70.18/bbl for full year 2015.
Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.