The summary of market info as of 9 Dec 2014 is as follows:
- Oil’s collapse accelerated after OPEC decided Nov. 27 to maintain output levels, underscoring the price war in crude. Crude is trading in a bear market amid signs that U.S. output is expanding even after OPEC opted not to reduce its production quota.
- Saudi Aramco offer Asian customers the biggest discount on its benchmark crude in at least 14 years, heightening speculation the country is lowering prices to defend market share. In the other side, U.S. oil producers will fight OPEC for the market share.
- EIA cut its WTI price forecasts to average $62.75 in 2015 versus November projection of $ 77.75. Brent will average at $68.08 /bbl in 2015.
- BNP Paribas estimates 2015 WTI at $70, Barclays at $66, Mitsubishi at $70.5.
Using the methodology of Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) developed by Engle-Grager (2003 Economics Nobel Award) , we update the SLC (Sumateran Light Crude/Minas) forecast is as follows:
Based on the graph, we estimate December SLC will continue down to $64.4/bbl and 2014 SLC will average down to $ 99.0/bbl .
Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.
Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.