EIA (Energy Information Administration) reported in 9 September 2014 as summarized below:
- Weakening global demand and increased Libyan oil exports contributed to a drop in the North Sea Brent crude oil spot price to an average of $102 per barrel (bbl) in August.
- West Texas Intermediate crude fell after a government report showed that U.S. refineries reduced operating rates as the peak driving season came to an end.
- EIA projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $103/bbl in fourth-quarter 2014 and $103/bbl in 2015. The WTI discount to Brent is expected to average $8/bbl in both 2014 and 2015.
- Supply concern is still high in the oil-producing countries due to geopolitical factors, we expect the market will rebound little bit in the first half of 2015.
The Error Correction model (ECM) is an econometric model to forecast SLC (Sumateran Light Crude/Minas) using historical spot and futures price of WTI data as of 9 September 2014
Based on this report, we expect the September SLC will be down to $97.3/bbl and the 2014 average price is $ 104.7/bbl.
Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.
Based on this report, we expect the September SLC will be down to $97.3/bbl and the 2014 average price is $ 104.7/bbl.
Disclaimer: The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and would be updated every month.