- This event has passed.
Online Training Petroleum Economics and Risk Analysis – An application in PSC Gross Split vs Cost Recovery
August 25, 2020 @ 8:00 am - August 27, 2020 @ 3:00 pm
COURSE OUTLINE
Outline Day One – Conventional Economic Analysis
- Fundamental of Upstream Economics
- Undiscounted Cash Flow Analysis (IRR, POT)
- Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (NPV, PI)
- 2. Upstream Contracts: Gross Split vs Cost Recovery
- Base split, variable and progressive split
- Unrecovered cost vs Tax Loss Carry Forward
Workshop 1: Building a PSC and Gross Split cash flow model
- Upstream Risk Analysis
- Identifying sources of uncertainty
- Three stages of Risk analysis
- Sensitivity analysis
Workshop 2: Building scenario model (development and reserve scenario)
- Scenario analysis
Workshop 3: Building sensitivity model (spider and tornado chart)
Outline Day Two – Probabilistic Risk Analysis
- Introduction to probabilistic risk
- Key features of a probabilistic model
- Key parameter of probability distribution
- Monte Carlo simulation using Free SIPmath tools
- Schematic process of monte carlo simulation
- Quantifying variable uncertainty in upstream project using simulations techniques
- Assessing the effect of variable uncertainty on project’s NPV
- Step by step how to use SIPmath software
Workshop 4: Building a Monte Carlo simulation model using SIPMath tools
Outline Day Three – Modern Real Options Analysis
- Introduction to Real Options
- Birth and intuition behind Real Options
- Conventional DCF vs Real Options (RO)
Workshop 5: Fundamental difference between DCF vs RO
- The Use of Market information
- Futures market
- Forward Price model
Workshop 6: use future price data and develop dynamic stochastic forward price model
COURSE MATERIAL
- Access to zoom premium account
- Extensive course notes and excel spreadsheets
- Videos detailing step to step to build DCF and RO probabilistic model
- Free SIPmath Monte Carlo simulation software
- Free book “ modelling valuation decision risk in oil and gas project “ by Nuzulul Haq