Training "Petroleum Economics and Portfolio Risk Analysis", 17 – 20 December 2013, Sheraton Hotel Kuta – BALI

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Overview
  • This new title of Petroleum Economics course is to accommodate topic of Portfolio Risk Analysis in more     detail.
  • This intensive course will provide participants with the tools and techniques to avoid some common errors in evaluation and execute investment decision with better assessment using Market Risk & Portfolio Analysis.

 
Key Highlights
  • Basic of evaluation techniques as well as the practical implementation of these techniques to upstream project assessment in PSC Regime
  • Identifying and quantifying risk using sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation
  • Assessing risk market information in managing upstream project.
  • Making investment decisions in exploration and development project, acquisition project or bidding evaluation on block tender

Contents
     Topic          Description

Basic Economic Evaluation

 1. Overview of project economics in PSC regime
2. Conventional Valuation Techniques:

  • Undiscounted Analysis (IRR, Payback)
  • Discounted Analysis (NPV, Profit to Investment)

Risk Analysis

 3. Static Risk Analysis

  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Scenario Analysis (high, base, and low case)

4. Probabilistic Risk Analysis

  • MonteCarlo Simulation (Probability distributions)

5. Decision Tree

  • Expected Monetary Value
  • Value of Information

Risk Management

 6. Contingence Decision Analysis using Real Options

  • Fuzzy Pay Off Method
  • Paddock Siegel and Smith model

7. Portfolio Management

  • Selection Technique
  • Diversification and Optimization

The Use of Market Information

 8. Some common errors in conventional technique
9. Forward price market
10. Conventional  DCF vs Market based NPV (MBV)
11. Static vs Dynamic Cash Flow using forward pricing

 
Case Study
  • Harvard Business Case Study : Penzoil vs Texaco
  • Acquisition on PSC Block
  • Evaluation of bidding proposal on Block Tender
Complement
  1. Extensive set of course notes detailing valuation concepts, numerical calculations and practical valuation examples.
  2. Excel sspreadsheets Model for petroleum projects evaluation
  3. Risk Simulator software (Trial Version) for Monte Carlo Simulation
  4. Free Book “A New Era of Project Economics and Investment Decision Techniques”
Further Information
 Xperiential and Professional Training  (XP training)Menara Kartika Chandra Lt.2 R206 Jl. Gatot Subroto Kav 18-20  JakartaPh. 021-5251351,  Fax. 021-5256479.E-mail: info@xp-training.info